Where the Jobs Will Be in 2010
By Prashant Gopal, BusinessWeek, Friday, November 6, 2009
Regions across the U.S. will see job growth in the first quarter of 2010. But the growth will be sporadic and many areas will continue to lag
The recession might be technically over, but unemployment is rising month after month even in most of the nation’s strongest job markets.
A full-fledged job recovery seems to be a long way away. But some metros are poised for significant job growth by the first quarter of next year. BusinessWeek.com teamed up with Moody’s Economy.com to identify America’s 25 next recovering job markets. These metros were ranked based on Economy.com’s projected job growth in the first three months of 2010.
Topping the list is Mount Vernon, Wash., a small town about 60 miles north of Seattle with just 48,000 workers. The town, which lost jobs quickly during the recession, could see a rebound, in part because tourism, retail, and hospitality will make a comeback as the economy improves. Additionally, the weak dollar will provide a boost to communities with international trading ports and metros that border Mexico, such as Brownsville, Tex. (a port town that is No. 4 on our list), and border town McCallen, Tex. (No. 3). Our list was also packed with towns that are closely linked to the energy industry (Billings, Mont., Houston, Tex., and Farmington, N.M.), college towns (College Station, Tex., Tuscaloosa, Ala., Auburn, Ala., and Lawrence, Kan.), and military towns (Columbus, Ga., Augusta, Ga., and Texarkana, Tex.).
None of the metros on the list experienced a housing bubble that had a disastrous pop. Miami, Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Stockton, Calif., will likely be in a funk long after many Texas metros are in growth mode.
“These are areas that had little or no housing cycle and stand to benefit from the renewed firmness in commodity prices,” said Chris Lefakis, an economist at Moody’s Economy.com. “This could be an export-lead recovery with the replenishment of inventory leading to a resurgence in manufacturing.
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